Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 25.815699 30.812101 36.286536 42.700200 49.977292 57.946593 67.301964
2025-07-20 18.897814 25.592940 33.641640 43.897890 56.477941 71.260365 89.788098
2025-07-27 15.073945 22.560697 32.229020 45.340819 62.343428 83.318302 110.786166
2025-08-03 12.384051 20.238826 31.027697 46.439437 67.346332 94.148582 130.459434
2025-08-10 9.898351 17.635538 28.912970 45.824950 69.730739 101.448525 145.718011
2025-08-17 8.281559 15.969358 27.788985 46.284551 73.366334 110.350484 163.258967
2025-08-24 6.856639 14.312581 26.393880 46.087697 75.896575 117.708226 178.885958
2025-08-31 5.457029 12.406973 24.311320 44.552539 76.235369 121.874534 190.148319
2025-09-07 4.713972 11.528441 23.756637 45.279320 79.889715 130.809940 208.318727
2025-09-14 3.842031 10.214252 22.262690 44.290213 80.761671 135.642974 220.728429
2025-09-21 3.393701 9.668553 22.048502 45.378034 84.900156 145.420145 240.579368
2025-09-28 2.666212 8.342913 20.194557 43.426753 83.956224 147.406933 248.954178
2025-10-05 2.361867 7.971944 20.220445 44.974982 89.137189 159.436771 273.440108
2025-10-12 2.049614 7.510048 20.013025 46.100133 93.723690 170.831104 297.554509
2025-10-19 1.810617 7.173650 20.011463 47.590702 98.996892 183.502775 324.041555
2025-10-26 1.580139 6.792151 19.848355 48.731370 103.690083 195.394291 349.678671
2025-11-02 1.278522 6.092842 18.850030 48.092981 105.126237 201.987855 367.178811
2025-11-09 1.085676 5.670923 18.428572 48.570427 108.585521 212.016947 390.399068
2025-11-16 0.892768 5.169776 17.723983 48.365933 110.731113 219.882925 410.345812
2025-11-23 0.682030 4.495966 16.446711 46.770952 110.103942 222.956968 422.557705
2025-11-30 0.585255 4.241326 16.241659 47.526109 114.033050 233.997009 448.120650
2025-12-07 0.454740 3.758694 15.304059 46.498360 114.366687 238.735816 463.344883
2025-12-14 0.397644 3.602962 15.290014 47.628669 119.066974 251.335377 492.038496